Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

Several members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.